Research of the efficiency indicators of railway cargo transportation by probabilistic break-even analysis

Abstract

Algorithmic and software for probabilistic break-even analysis based on the Monte Carlo method for evaluating the efficiency indicators of cargo transportation by rail has been developed. The initial data for calculating these indicators are: cargo transportation; fixed costs; variable costs per unit of cargo transportation; average price of a unit of cargo transportation; the amount of investment. To assess the efficiency of cargo transportation, the following indicators are selected in the article: break-even point, operating profit, investment profitability. A software for probabilistic break–even analysis based on the Monte Carlo method using the Python programming language has been developed. The functionality of the created software is described. In the software, it is possible to test the initial data models, output the test results, as well as the results of processing sample values obtained by the Monte Carlo method. A feature of this study based on a probabilistic break-even analysis is the consideration of the uncertainty of the railway transportation process, which leads to the randomness of the initial data and performance indicators. Testing and approbation of the developed software and algorithmic support was carried out according to one of the railways of JSC «RZD». Given the confidentiality of the initial data, they are presented in conventional units. Software testing showed high quality of initial data simulation by the Monte Carlo method, since all values of mathematical expectations fell within the confidence intervals obtained from sample data. The developed mathematical software based on the Monte Carlo method will improve the quality of managerial decision-making by determining the quantitative values of performance indicators.