Mathematical methods for making optimal decisions in designing railways

Abstract

The article is devoted to the modernization of decision-making in the design of railways using mathematical methods. The types of information situations that may arise when making decisions (under conditions of certainty; risk, uncertainty) are identified. The need for structuring information when forming criteria and choosing alternatives is considered. The importance of information and analytical activities in decision making is shown. The uncertainty factor in the design of railways is determined by the state of the environment, the need to take into account external conditions and other features of the construction and operation of railways. The author proposed to use methods allowing to build a mathematical model and take into account the information incompleteness when making optimal decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. A classification of decision-making methods according to the content and type of information is given. The basic principles of the fuzzy set theory are described, which can be used in decision-making when designing railways. The practical task of designing a new railway is considered. Multiple criteria have been formed for choosing the optimal solution. A solution is proposed to the practical problem of multicriteria selection of strategic alternatives for designing railways under conditions of uncertainty, based on the fuzzy set theory. The result obtained demonstrates the possibility of using the fuzzy set theory when making decisions in the practice of railway construction.