Estimation of the freight traffic mobility plan taking into account consignment notes and traffic intensity data

Abstract

The article outlines the problem of estimation of freight traffic mobility plan, taking into account the data of consignment notes and traffic intensity. Most of the methods of estimating freight traffic mobility plans are based on comparing the distances between the reconstructed and the original mobility plan, taking into account the flow restrictions. In modern practice of transport modeling, two types of information are most often used when assessing the freight traffic mobility plan. These are the data of consignment notes and the intensity of traffic flows. The mobility plan obtained from the data of consignment notes reflects only the structure of the movement of goods. Due to errors in the information, the mobility plan may differ from the real version of the transportation of goods. The purpose of the study is to estimate the real mobility plan; taking into account the data of consignment notes (as a mobility plan of the movement of goods in the surveyed area) as the original (a priori) mobility plan, as well as the data for calculating the traffic intensity (in accordance with the performance constraints). According to the available information on consignment notes and calculations of the intensity of traffic flows, a variant of assessing the real freight traffic mobility plan is considered using stochastic models and taking into account route selection schemes. Possible errors in information sources − consignment note and traffic intensity data – are analyzed with estimation of each option. To find the optimal mobility plan estimate, a calibrated entropy maximization model with a composite objective function can be used. Thus, using a geographic information system, calibrated distribution models, as well as the entropy function, an estimate of the mobility plan based on the data of consignment notes becomes available.